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dccsillag 4 days ago

That's a particular form of Conformal Prediction, called Split Conformal Prediction. Incidentally, it's also one of the best ones (i.e., most extensible, strongest guarantees, easiest to implement, remarkably sample-efficient).

Making a calibration set is pretty easy, it's just a data split (just like the train/test split). The hardest part (which is still fairly easy) is creating a 'conformity score', which is a function that receives the input and a candidate output and scores how well this candidate output 'conforms' to the input. This is where an underlying ML model can come in handy: it can, itself, estimate this! Split Conformal Prediction then does a fairly simple quantile calculation on these scores (or some variant thereof) to then form the set prediction.

In a sense, you could use Bayesian NNs to produce a conformity score. But that doesn't seem to be much better than just using e.g. the model's logits for your conformity score. Theory-wise, Conformal Prediction methods have a number of favorable guarantees that Bayesian models (and especially Bayesian NNs) generally don't, and in practice we've seen that conditional on the model giving calibrated outputs (which is guaranteed for Conformal Prediction, but not for Bayesian NNs), Conformal Prediction predicted sets seem to be tighter than the Bayesian NN ones.