this has always been the key reason, going back to the '60s

Actual military aid started in 1973.

Israel fought and won 3-5 wars (depending how you count them) without US military aid, and it seems that Egypt, Jordan and Syria no longer have any interest in prosecuting further wars against them.

They started getting military aid from the US after all those wars, and it seems that the only reason they still get it is for political reasons. I don’t think any military analyst believes they actually need that aid to survive.