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It's not entirely speculation; South Africa certainly wanted to avoid it.

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-...

> South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has asked permission from the International Criminal Court not to arrest Russia's Vladimir Putin, because to do so would amount to a declaration of war, a local court submission published on Tuesday showed.

Brazil waffled, too.

https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-pu...

> On Saturday, while in India for a Group of 20 nations meeting, Lula told a local interviewer that there was "no way" Putin would be arrested if he attended next year's summit, which is due to be held in Rio de Janeiro.

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aguaviva 4 days ago | parent [-]

74 countries across the two regions, last we checked.

You've got 72 to go.

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ceejayoz 4 days ago | parent [-]

Only one - Chile - has affirmatively stated they’d execute the warrant.

Small countries try not to piss off large nuclear powers with a history of polonium use.

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aguaviva 4 days ago | parent [-]

So it's not "No countries in Latin America", then.

And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant.

More substantially: I don't see where you're going with these objections. It's not like I think the warrant will be hugely successful. But it has to be issued and -- until Putin shows a significant readiness to bend -- it has to be kept in place. And it will have some effect. The exact percentage of countries that can be counted on to enforce it on continent X is obviously irrelvant.

I only jumped in because of the obviously vacuous, extremified formulation ("No country will ..."). Obviously they didn't mean it literally, but to underscore their point; but still -- it's a weird habit people unfortunately have on HN.

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ceejayoz 4 days ago | parent [-]

> And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant.

Even Chile's stated willingness is probably a bit like "if I were a billionaire I'd do <great things>" - easy to say when it's not an actual decision ready to be made.

I like being pedantic as much as the next person, but "small developing countries don't love pissing off big angry ones with nukes" isn't the outrageous conclusion you're portraying it as.

	▲	aguaviva 4 days ago \| parent [-]
		Except I'm not making that portrayal.