I think there's a probabalistic argument I'm making that's more in line with the article.

Yes - there will be 10x-ers. And that group will have a 10x-er iside it, and so on given exponential dropoff of frequency of talent. Bobby Fisher is a few std dev above even the best, perhaps.

Generally speaking, "You can do anything you want, but wanting (enough, and naturally) is the hardest part" might need a three standard deviation limit.

Have you heard the phrase: Being average among those who practice makes you 9X% among the population? I think that's what I'm saying - you can be a top performer if you dedicate yourself, especially early enough, but almost nobody will.

I agree with you. I don’t think I’m naturally gifted at much (I’m just average), but I was taught stubborn hard work pretty early on. Unfortunately it took me until my 20s to figure out I could be athletic if I applied that hard work. I could also be good at programming doing the same. I’ve met people who are truly gifted and it’s amazing, but I’m pretty decent at the things I worked hard at.