~40% of cargo tonnage is moving fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) around [1] [2]. I would expect this volume to decline as the global energy transition continues to ramp. China's economy and EVs are already depressing global oil prices [3] [4] [5], for example. Also consider global decoupling and repatriating of supply chains [6] [7].

My analysis: We're potentially going to require much less marine transport capacity in the future. How much of that can be electrified is the question, imho (versus "green ammonia" produced from low carbon energy [8]).

[1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-...

[2] https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...

[3] https://www.iea.org/commentaries/china-s-slowdown-is-weighin...

[4] https://theprogressplaybook.com/2024/09/18/chinas-ev-and-hig...

[5] https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowing-oil-dem...

[6] https://www.axios.com/2024/11/14/companies-global-trade-chin...

[7] https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/2024/...

[8] https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...