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Ye and this is the problem with management using estimates as deadline.

When I was naive and believed that Agile was not a sinister micromanagement toolkit to mess with programmers, I tried to explain to people that about half of our estimates should overshoot and half undershoot or they are biased and that there should be more overshoots since there is no upper bound on how much time a task can take if the estimate is wrong.

Ye. No. The burndown chart shouls be as straight as possible.

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mewpmewp2 6 days ago | parent [-]

Yeah, and even if it is not being done as of moment, there is always a possibility of someone clueless from leadership deciding it is a good idea to check how many story points you have completed by some rough statistical analysis, in which case people who put higher estimates and completed those tickets will look better.

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rightbyte 6 days ago | parent [-]

Ye. The manager need to be a programmer and involved in the project to be able to evaluate the participants.

I guess 'estimation poker' is a way to counteract the obvious strategy to coast and look competent.

In poker you can also look good by underbidding your peers and then snatch the easy ones to look good while the scapegoats look bad.

The strategy need some social status or incubent code knowledge relative to the team though, to get the good tasks.

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mewpmewp2 6 days ago | parent [-]

I have thought about how it would be fun to have something where people will either openly or blindly estimate and bid. In practice I might be concerned about few things like introducing too much of a competitive culture within the team. Or it could lead to a place where people get too specialized and knowledge doesn't spread around, since everyone will bid on things they have experience with, and so they will be the only one with that experience, which might hurt in the long run. I couldn't actually imagine doing it in my current team. I think people are diligent anyway, and already work more hours than usually would be required. I find it better to just try to protect each other within the team, to drive everyone making higher estimates.

Also doing bidding for those estimates in addition could mean that there might be strong incentives for a lot of corner cutting for certain tasks, etc. People will value short term gains over long term gains when there's such pressure.

	▲	rightbyte 6 days ago \| parent [-]
		I think any process step that resembles a game might be problematic. And a major problem with group estimates is that given how much knowledge a person has about the code, the effective time will vary so much. So dunno. I have no experiance as a team lead or manager. I would probably not track task time at all as a manager. It would give the illusion of insight. Rather some loose percent worked by project per programmer.