Nobody is going to fix the problem without fixing the culture, which isn't easy to do.

The issue isn't around tasks that are predictable in nature and therefore easy to estimate with a small margin of error, it's around complexity in software, unforeseen things, bugs, etc, which can compound for larger long term projects.

If engineers give estimates close to what it would be if everything goes right, then they risk overpromising and underdelivering if something goes wrong (hofstader's law). They might've just wanted to do the right thing by saving the company money and time, but in the end they footgunned themselves.

Or engineers intentionally over-estimate in order to manage the complexity, but then you end up with a lot of padding and parkinson's law. Because as soon as the engineer starts underpromising and overdelivering consistently, management will pressure them to lower their estimates because they have a track record of doing that, so instead they're incentivized to pad and then fill up the entire time they estimated even if it took less time.

Sprints were probably invented in order to deal with some of these issues, so that people just work with a bunch of smaller tickets that are much easier to estimate, with the more complex long term estimates going to management, which are incentivized to get it right because they're shareholders. That often leads to micromanagement and burnout, and it doesn't fix the padding/overestimation issue either, it might even amplify it in a lot of cases.

People here mention giving ranges or probability distributions, and have also equally mentioned that they don't work because management wants a single number, or management just assumes the best-case or middle-case of the range as the actual estimate, and then they still get in trouble for giving ranges and it didn't solve anything. It also doesn't solve the problem of unanticipated setbacks, the whole you don't know what you don't know thing, which can only really be solved culturally in some way.

While there are certainly bad managers that want to squeeze their workers, a lot of the time management is probably also pressured to give estimates and that's why they want and need that accuracy, because they're pressured by investors and clients that want to know how much time and money something will cost.

Overall the entire problem is a system cultural issue around managing complexity.