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pkkkzip 7 days ago

I noticed phenomenon in poker as well. Someone who runs well ahead of the crowd continues to do so seemingly even playing randomly with no thought into traditional poker theory.

For example, if a strong pair starts off with a bad beat then it tends to continue that trend. The word trend doesn't mean its going to happen but that its likely to continue the past.

When someone continues exploiting this trend they have seemingly "broken" the game, it no longer functions like a calculated game of odds and when somebody plays like a maniac (like in the first scenario i mentioned) there is seemingly no other defense than to wait until the trend breaks but no matter how seasoned a player is they cannot shake the past and its perceived likelihood of continuing.

This effect is rampant in stock market as well when there is seemingly less "random" reinforcements and belief in the crowd which without fail has given rise to black swans/massive collective drawdowns of the world war causing variety.