The 2 first paragraphs are in contradiction with my results with working with LLMs. There is definitely some form of reasoning that has emerged. Some people will still find it not convincing enough to be called reasoning, but that just a quantitative limitation at the moment.

With respect to AGI in its broadest sense: indeed it is not in reach. I think that is for the better!

If a transformer had infinite data and parameters, I'm sure it could simulate human reasoning to a high degree. Humans don't work that way, so we may need to create a more general definition for artificial reasoning