| ▲ | weakfish 2 hours ago | |
This premise is based around the assumption that Moore's law is still working, which it very much isn't [0] [0] https://cap.csail.mit.edu/death-moores-law-what-it-means-and... | ||
| ▲ | andrewmunsell 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | |
Improvements in model performance aren't always strictly compute-constrained in a way that makes them reliant on Moore's Law. Open weight models-- in particular, from Chinese labs-- are optimizing model intelligence with less compute. They're "behind" frontier models by months, but as others have noted, it's possible to get Sonnet 4.5+ level performance at reduced cost, today, from open weight labs. | ||
| ▲ | modeless an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | |
No, I'm not assuming Moore's law. The efficiency of AI datacenters will continue to improve even without Moore's law, but more importantly the efficiency of packing intelligence into gigabytes and FLOPS will improve by leaps and bounds over the coming years, just as it has for the past few years if not faster. | ||