You can absolutely level this claim against Tesla too. When deliveries dropped a year ago, the stock price didn't go down. Tesla's stock is disconnected from the fundamentals and every stock investor today knows this.

Why would SpaceX be any different? If anything it would be even more disconnected from the fundamentals than Tesla is, given how much more control it gives Elon.

SpaceX stock is a bet on Elon, full stop. It has nothing to do with space, data centers, AI, or whatever technology they're currently working on; it's a bet that Elon will figure something out.

(and if you need any example of this, just look at Twitter--he engineered an exit for his X shareholders at a higher valuation [at the expense of SpaceX, but a positive exit nonetheless])

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tyre 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yeah you can’t go into this with any expectations or later complaints. Everyone knows at this point that he’s going to do whatever the fuck he wants. If you give him money, that’s what it’s for.

I say this entirely neutrally. Some people want to invest in that—and he’s made a boatload of money for those who have thus far!—while others find it insane.

But you don’t get to buy into this and complain.

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kurthr 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If you have ETFs or index tracking funds in your 401k you're going to buy it. In fact, you'll buy more of it than is going on sale. Since they only need to issue 5% of the stock for it to show up as a 20% market cap in the QQQ index and tracking funds own over 20% of the market, they pretty much have to buy all the shares. Welcome to market manipulation 101.

	▲	fauchletenerum an hour ago \| parent [-]
		It's only being added to the Nasdaq 100, not the SP500, and only a very small number of people have their 401K tied to the Nasdaq Edit: Actually, I didn't realize that it's being added to MSCI, so I was wrong: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/msci-confirms...

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jmyeet an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I 100% agree SpaceX (and Tesla) is a bet on Elon, completely divorced from the fundamentals. But I don't think people realize just how risky this is.

Tesla is only one administration change away from going bankrupt. Ask yourself what would happen to Tesla if BYD could freely import cars.

This might not even take an administration change. Elon very famously had a public falling out with Donald Trump, going so far as to call the sitting president of the United States a pedophile, basically [1]. Now, as a Tesla investor, what to make of this? Elon is technically risking the entire company on a childish outburst.

SpaceX at least has some competitive advantages. Falcon 9 as a launch system is unmatched. Nobody can currently compete with the track record and cost per launch (factoring in booster reuse). That may change but the next company has to compete with the Falcon 9 and develop a proven track record. Also, SpaceX is American so it has guaranteed business from the US government for national security reasons.

But, space operations are a rounding error in the valuation model for SpaceX. All of the AI stuff is bullshit, basically, particularly space-based data centers. STarlink is interesting but is dependent on Starship and will have to compete with 5G operators.

[1]: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5387380-elon-mus...

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andai 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

He seems pretty good at figuring stuff out.

	▲	jeremyjh 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Like how he figured out how to destroy half the enterprise value of Twitter? Like how he figured out how to promise full self driving cars in about six months? For eight years running? Like how he figured out how to cut USAID programs that prevented and treated malaria and tuberculosis with no plan or warning? There is never going to be a long-term colony on Mars. It is the most childish conceit imaginable.