Morningstar does think it's a possibility that Starship ends up being highly successful as a reusable platform and that orbital data centers end up being very successful, they just assign a 7% chance for that outcome.

I guess to this point the argument for the valuation is just, do you think Elon will beat the (very bad) odds?

I wouldn't take that bet, but I can see why some people would.

Fair point. Even if the math works, SpaceX could fail at execution for any number of reasons.