Unless the picture and trajectory changes dramatically I don’t see OpenAI managing to pull off a successful IPO. If they do manage to go public it will likely only be at a fraction of what they’re worth now, with existing investors rushing for the exits to avoid completely losing their shirts.

The revenue trajectory is now anemic, no clear sign of stopping the cash burn anytime soon, and all the liability associated with all things Sam Altman at this point. Frankly it’s a mess.

In Warren Buffet’s Cinderella party scenario it’s 11:59 at the party and someone just found an accurate clock.