>However, we assign this scenario, in which both Starship is reusable and scaled orbital data centers are highly successful, a 7% chance of happening

I may agree with their overall sentiment, but I think this sort of formulation is just silly nonsense from analysts who build models instead of companies.

Okay, but if someone is going to invest money into companies they need some way of deciding what they think a company is likely to do in the future.

Are these kinds of reports mostly a lot of window-dressing around a gut-feel about what might happen in the future? Yea, of course. But, there's not really other options. Pretty much all the other options for predicting how much money a particular company is going to make in the future will also boil down to a gut-feel.

You need a probability in order to estimate expected value.