Everyone says SpaceX IPO price is too high, but it's the most interesting IPO in a long time, it's critical to the US government, and America is, frankly, addicted to gambling. I'm not convinced it's going anywhere but up for a long while.

Very little of the IPO is related to anything government, or space for that matter. It's mostly a rental service for some GPUs that were hoarded, with the promise that somehow in the future the $2B/month that Anthropic and Google are paying SpaceX for compute infrastructure will somehow grow, that somehow SpaceX will grab valuable GPU real estate before others and continue renting it to others who actually make productive services.

Even SpaceX's own documents estimate the space stuff to only have an addressable market of $370B, and it's not like it's a document full of conservative estimates considering they estimate their AI at approximately the entire GDP of the United States.

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