siren2026 5 hours ago

> How would you differentiate insiders needing to sell versus insiders needing to dump before a crash?

To answer this, just ask yourself how many of the insiders would have bought the stock at current IPO's price? Most insiders would probably never touch those stocks at this price. I know a couple people at OpenAI and Anthropic that are very clearly selling everything they can as soon as they can.

This is all a carefully orchestrated PR game that is relying on retail to be the ultimate fool. I guess to some level every IPO is like that (A PR game to hype the company).

But never before had we 3 mega IPOs happening at almost the exact same time with so much money to unload on retails with dubious ways to force funds to gobble them.

Most IPOs end up negative after the first few quarters (at least compared to the SP500). When we are talking about a 20B$ company it matters less than 5T$ being suddenly fully unloaded on the public.

> And Uber and Airbnb's IPO investors made of fantastically.

Did they? https://www.alphaspread.com/comparison/nasdaq/abnb/vs/indx/g...

The only way they might have is by getting the shares at the actual IPO price, and even then it's around the same as the SP500 return since then.

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JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> couple people at OpenAI and Anthropic that are very clearly selling everything they can as soon as they can

If you are serious about this for Anthropic please drop me a line. (Not OpenAI.)

> never before had we 3 mega IPOs happening at almost the exact same time

Uber (May 2019), Airbnb (December 2020) and WeWork (scheduled 2019, SPAC 2021) were pretty closely bunched. And they were big for their time. Keep in mind that the money supply has expanded since then.

> Most IPOs end up negative after the first few quarters

Source?

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siren2026 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> Source?

There is an actual ETF tracking IPOs: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IPO/

	▲	JumpCrisscross 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> There is an actual ETF tracking IPOs Renaissance's IPO index seeks to "capture the essence of IPO activity and performance of newly public companies" [1]. It does not replicate an actual IPO investor's returns. For example, it adds new issues approximately quarterly and never earlier than 5 days from IPO. This is important since it misses the pop. Mean (median) first-day returns on IPOs are 20% (7%) [2]. The average 3-year buy-and-hold return for all IPO investors 1980 to 2025 was 19.1%. Less than broad-market indices (though that margin shrinks for $1bn+ sales IPOs). But certainly not negative. (Uber and Airbnb reflect this trend. Up since IPO. But, as you observe, below the S&P 500's returns even before taking into account total returns.) [1] https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/document... [2] https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPO-Statistics.... 1980 to 2025; 30% (14%) for 2025

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s1artibartfast 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Is it bad for insiders to want out? Is it bad for owners to sell when they think it is overpriced?

I think this is extremely common, if not necessary, part of a functioning market and price discovery. It happens with not just IPOs but also secondary offerings.

Some of this seems like dumb retail wanting to toughtlessly buy without consideration of risk.