SpaceX IPO is slated to be $75-80bn — the market has size for that. We also have seen robust options and finance markets for AAPL and NVDA over the last years that make the broader ecosystem not overly worrying in my armchair opinion.

I’m not clear how much crossover demand there is between SX and Anthropic/oAI — that seems like the more interesting question. I’m guessing if we had Anthropic/oAI launching at the same time we’d see some pretty interesting capital dynamics.

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fc417fc802 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> if we had Anthropic/oAI launching at the same time

Don't we have exactly that? There are S-1 announcements for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Google is selling to raise money for infra (IIRC). There's an absurd amount of money flowing in at present (prospectively at least).

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XorNot 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

None of these companies are worth the numbers being tossed around, but SpaceX especially so.

Its Schrodinger's IPO: the space business is so successful how could you question the company's worth? You can't afford to miss out on the next biggest AI business to invest in!

What's going to happen is the music will stop and it's just a question of who cashed in when it does. OpenAI are easily the most vulnerable here.

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HDBaseT 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I was under the impression SpaceX was going to be a trillion dollar company.

The media and market is hyping these three companies up to be all trillion dollar companies.

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panopticon 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Afaik SpaceX is only putting 5% of its shares up on the public market when it IPOs (newly minted shares, diluting the existing private shareholders).

So the markets only "need to absorb" $75B when SpaceX IPOs, not its whole $1.7T valuation. At least until the lockup period expires.

	▲	HDBaseT an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Gotcha, that seems a bit more manageable for the market to absorb. I think it will still be a bit tight with Anthropic and OpenAI IPO'ing at similar times however.