I suspect Chinese factories will get built first, but quality may take a few years to really nail down.

Basically:

China floods the market with cheaper but less QA'd parts, makes a gazillion dollars, is able to spend said money to fix yields / QA issues and streamline operations, by the time that happens Micron and maybe a few other existing players will have new memory production, and then we'll have a flood of cheap, reliable memory. 4yr, maybe?

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cyost an hour ago | parent | next [-]

They're doing decent enough already for consumer electronics. Corsair is selling 16GB 6000MT/s CL36 DDR5 sticks in China using memory from CXMT: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memo...

	▲	curiousllama 22 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		How long would it take an aggressive company to expand production capacity? I always thought it takes a few years, at minimum, for even established players to stand up new fabs

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ahartmetz an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

It is not a law of nature that Chinese products are lower quality (cf. electric cars) and I don't see why they would go for that. They can just bin what they produce like everyone else and sell their products for what they have been tested to deliver.

	▲	nomel 40 minutes ago \| parent \| next [-]
		But it is a near law that the first to market attempts will fully embraces the deeply engrained culture of 差不多, until market forces beat it out of the product line.
	▲	esseph 14 minutes ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		This has nothing to do about nationality, it has everything to do with building and running a brand new, highly technical, mass production facility.