| ▲ | applfanboysbgon 25 days ago |
| > BTW, I approached ABC about buying back the former FiveThirtyEight IP*, and they said they wouldn't sell at any price because I'd criticized their management of the brand. --Nate Silver (538 founder) ABC seem pretty petty here. |
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| ▲ | queuebert 25 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| So Nate & Co sell out to a big corporation then are upset that it does big corporation stuff? I'm more mad at Nate here because 538 was my go-to for political coverage pre-sellout, and because of his greed it went away. |
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| ▲ | alisonatwork 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | 538 had some decent years through its various sellout phases and imo hit its peak after Nate Silver left - he'd long since exposed himself more as a contrarian than a serious analyst and had become a real detriment to the brand. It was definitely sad to lose 538 how we did, but G Elliott Morris has really stepped up to continue the spirit on his Strength in Numbers blog. It's the best data-driven US politics reporting out there right now imo. He also contributes to Fifty Plus One with Mary Radcliffe, and that's excellent too, reminiscent of the old 538 polling roundup stuff that went beyond just core US politics. Recently he started a podcast with David Nir of The Downballot, which is another solid resource for lower level races. | | | |
| ▲ | adjejmxbdjdn 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Whatever you feel about his actions that was at worst it was a win-lose decision. He benefited from it. If his comment is accurate, then ABC’s decision is a clear lose-lose decision driven entirely by personal spite. | | |
| ▲ | lesuorac 25 days ago | parent [-] | | Honestly is Nate even wrong here? IIRC, he got to keep all of the models and etc from 538 which is kinda all that mattered about it. Like anybody is really going to lookup the 2016 election in 2030 but they're definitely want the model's output in 2030 for 2030. Management seems to be clearly inept and if somebody wants to give you a wheelbarrow of cash for something worthless you're generally foolish to not accept. | | |
| ▲ | afavour 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | I don’t think that’s all that mattered. FiveThirtyEight was a strong brand, it was definitely worth something. | | | |
| ▲ | Hamuko 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | He never sold the prediction models, and only leased them to ABC/538, so they left with him as he left the company. | | |
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| ▲ | vintermann 24 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It's petty even for a corporation. It's not exactly maximizing shareholder value. But yeah, it's the sort of stuff corporations (especially media corporations) can be expected to do. I think Nate has become better at this sort of stuff in recent years. But still, he said that Disney "hardly ever" interfered in their editorial process, oblivious to the implication. (What it means is that Disney/ABC were perfectly willing to interfere in their editorial process, but rarely needed to since Nate said what they wanted him to say anyway). | | |
| ▲ | ownlife 24 days ago | parent [-] | | How can we jump to that conclusion? Maybe they were only willing to interfere in that process in extreme cases. | | |
| ▲ | vintermann 24 days ago | parent | next [-] | | What would that look like? Can you see a concrete scenario where it was somehow justified by ABC Disney to interfere in 538's editorial process? There's not much extreme about Nate Silver. | |
| ▲ | IAmBroom 22 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Which means they interfered when they really wanted to, which is the point you were responding to. |
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| ▲ | bfung 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Just follow the man, not the brand. He’s still doing his thing: https://www.natesilver.net/ | | |
| ▲ | dangus 25 days ago | parent [-] | | But he kind of sucks and isn’t worth following. He’s a sellout at heart, including his recent association with Polymarket. Someone cool would have never sold out a website as good as 538 used to be. Now he’s more interested in profiting off of gamblers. | | |
| ▲ | derektank 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | 538 has basically always been a licensed product, first with the NYT in 2010, and then with ESPN/ABC/Disney since they left the NYT in 2013. There were only 2 years where it was an independent blog | |
| ▲ | yieldcrv 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | 538 got one election right a decade and a half ago with a contrarian alternative data source, and hooked a bunch of partisan gamblers since now you can actually bet on your beliefs and dont need to debate with anyone on whether the koolaid colored wave of choice will actually happen, or whether you are a slave to an algorithm induced hall of mirrors. note, the senate has been 50-50 for over a decade, its probably the latter so the only intervention necessary here is on yourself, focusing on things you cant control while delusionally thinking this time will be different, over and over and over again extracting value from partisan gullibility and pathetic power struggles is unironically the move | | |
| ▲ | ownlife 24 days ago | parent | next [-] | | There's no "getting elections right"; these models just estimate probability. They gave Trump a 29% change in 2016 -- that's almost 1 in 3! A better way to assess accuracy would be to bin predictions (0-10% chance, 10-20% chance, etc.) and see if the observed frequency aligns with the predictions. | | |
| ▲ | yieldcrv 24 days ago | parent [-] | | I like market based approaches as a signal and opportunity creation, price discovery In parallel your signal could be a data source adding to individuals contribution to price discovery |
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| ▲ | stackghost 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Pretty sure the only election that 538 didn't correctly call was 2016. For sure they correctly predicted both Obama wins and Biden. | | |
| ▲ | owisd 25 days ago | parent [-] | | They don't really 'call' elections since they only publish probabilities. If you'd bet on the candidate 538/Silver was more bullish than the bookies, then the only election year you wouldn't have made money would have been 2024. |
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| ▲ | jimbokun 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | You do realize the person responsible for 538 is the same person? | | |
| ▲ | fragmede 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | People change over time. The Nate Silver of 2026 isn't the same Nate Silver of 2010 or 2013. | | |
| ▲ | furyofantares 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | That's a funny response in the context of "Now he’s more interested in profiting off of gamblers" given I remember posting with him on the 2+2 forums in the early aughts poker boom days where he was a popular poster teaching a lot of people how to profit off gamblers. | | |
| ▲ | matltc 25 days ago | parent [-] | | 2+2 is great. Still go check on casino megathreads if I wanna play somewhere in a new town |
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| ▲ | jazzpush2 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | See also his new book versus his old. His new book is nothing but name-dropping. |
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| ▲ | kortilla 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | … yes, that’s why he mentioned that he isn’t cool for selling 538… | |
| ▲ | dangus 24 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yes that’s literally what I’m talking about. He made a cool site, sold it off to get enshittified, and now his main gig is grifting off of polymarket. |
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| ▲ | fn-mote 24 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > then are upset that it does big corporation stuff Parent says because they “criticized our management of the brand”. Big corporations don’t give a crap. They are 100% about the bottom line. This isn’t “big corporation” behavior. | |
| ▲ | Hnrobert42 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I understand your frustration, but greed? He didn't owe you anything. So what if he cashed out? | |
| ▲ | 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | returningfory2 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Your annoyance is understandable, but it's worth remembering: he is not your slave. He does not exist to do things for you. His providing you with something good for a time does not obligate him to provide it to you forever. Because he is not your slave. | | | |
| ▲ | marysol5 24 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | "Upset" is far from what happened here. | |
| ▲ | 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | aaron695 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [dead] | |
| ▲ | jaredhansen 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | [flagged] |
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| ▲ | rurp 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Wow. I have a low opinion of ABC as I said in another post, but this level of pettiness is still surprising to me. |
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| ▲ | brookst 25 days ago | parent [-] | | It’s basically a fuck you to the shareholders. Hey we’ve got this dead asset someone will pay for but we won’t sell because they were mean to us. Any exec who operates that way should be shown the door ASAP as they are likely doing similar emotional management of other aspects of the business. | | |
| ▲ | SoftTalker 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | If they feel it's damaging to have it public, then it could be argued that selling it would be irresponsible. I'm not arguing it is or it isn't, but reputation has value and management of it is part of what shareholders expect. | | |
| ▲ | brookst 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | But this isn’t reputation management. This is retribution for past affronts. This action in no way retroactively protects them from what was said. | | |
| ▲ | jakderrida 25 days ago | parent [-] | | I think he's just saying the case they would make to avoid being sued for breaching their fiduciary responsibility. Not that it's the actual reason. But Idk. |
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| ▲ | Dylan16807 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | It's hard to imagine how it could be damaging to ABC to have it public under someone else's brand. |
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| ▲ | jfengel 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | ABC's shareholders are Disney. Whatever Nate offered them isn't even a rounding error in Disney's $36 billion dollars in profits last year. The shareholders aren't going to care. | | |
| ▲ | hibikir 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | It's not that a shareholder won't care, but that the modern US company is such a large basket of businesses, it's impossible to put any pressure on a random business unit throwing money away. So, in practice, there's very little pressure to do things right, and a lot of pressure to do what your boss prefers, whether it actually helps the company's profitability or not. There can be negatives if you are doing massive damage to the company's image, but even then, ABC has done more than a little bit of that over the last couple of years to no ill effects. Just ask Kimmel. | | |
| ▲ | Barbing 25 days ago | parent [-] | | >impossible to put any pressure on a random business unit throwing money away ... very little pressure to do things right ... pressure to do what your boss prefers, whether it [helps] profitability This is frustrating as a consumer. Any further insight, on the solution side? |
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| ▲ | lotsofpulp 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Disney's 2025 profit was $12B: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/net-inc... | | |
| ▲ | margalabargala 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Accuracy is important. Thank you for the correction. $12B profit is obscenely large. | | |
| ▲ | lotsofpulp 24 days ago | parent [-] | | Is it? What is the reason to assume an arbitrary number of a currency is "obscene", without taking into account changes in purchasing power of the currency, number of employees, number of customers, amount of expenses, volatility of the business, time horizon of investment, and myriad other factors? | | |
| ▲ | margalabargala 24 days ago | parent [-] | | The size of it concentrated in one place. | | |
| ▲ | lotsofpulp 24 days ago | parent [-] | | What does one place mean? Disney sells access to media and entertainment all over the world, to billions of people. Regardless, a single metric is almost never sufficient to provide a well rounded analysis of anything. | | |
| ▲ | margalabargala 24 days ago | parent [-] | | I suspect you'll be able to figure it out if you thunk for a moment! When we're talking about the profits of one corporation, what do you think it might mean when someone says the profits go to "one place"? I know it can be confusing that many places exist and that the corporation has multiple customers. |
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| ▲ | themafia 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | So what amount of profits insulates you from lack of fiduciary responsibility? "It's okay set millions of dollars on fire because we have billions in this pile over here!" | | |
| ▲ | georgeecollins 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | The concept of fiduciary duty is an economic professors fantasy. When the shareholders of WB voted against David Zaslovs extraordinary 800m pay package the board ignored it. That's the "owners" voting to not give a crazy gift to the guy who was CEO for like 3 years and incredibly well paid. | |
| ▲ | singleshot_ 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | No, what insulates them from fiduciary responsibility is the fact that there is no fiduciary responsibility to shareholders. I’ll say that again: members and/or managers of an LLC, and officers and directors of a corporation owe no fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders to make them money. The fiduciary duties owed under US law are as follows: 1) the duty to be informed; 2) the duty not to usurp corporate opportunities. As far as I can tell the fiduciary duty to make money for the shareholders is something that Jack Welsh of GE said enough times that people remembered it. However, I’m always interested in additional details concerning the history of this meme, and happy to learn more. | | |
| ▲ | mminer237 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | This is true in some states, like Texas; but not in Delaware where Disney is incorporated and where directors and officers owe fiduciary duties of care and loyalty to both the corporation and the shareholders. (Not legal advice. I'm not licensed in either state.) | | |
| ▲ | singleshot_ 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | You are correct to note that there are two fiduciary duties: the duty of care, and the duty of loyalty. However, you are incorrect to imply I stated the law incorrectly. The duty of care is otherwise known as the duty to be informed. And the duty of loyalty is otherwise known as the duty not to usurp
corporate opportunities. I stated the law in Delaware, which is consistent with the law on the rest of the United States on these points. You and I simply use two different sets of words to describe the only two fiduciary duties of an officer. | |
| ▲ | triceratops 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | None of those mean "duty to make money for the shareholders" though. |
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| ▲ | singleshot_ 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | (The first person to observe that an LLC has no shareholders gets a lawyer high five). |
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| ▲ | brookst 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Hence my point of “if they’re doing this, they are likely making other emotional, anti-shareholder decisions” | |
| ▲ | themafia 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | > shareholders are Disney Who's shareholders are the public. > The shareholders aren't going to care This is not a valid defense in court. You can't let "attitude of investors" override "sound financial decisionmaking." | | |
| ▲ | slipheen 25 days ago | parent [-] | | I'm not defending them or this behaviour but it sounds to me like they may think the message/threat this sends to silence future criticism from other people, outweighs the immediate sum. (Internally I'm sure they could probably phrase it some other less negative way such as chance of people confusing the brand as still owned by them, etc) association |
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| ▲ | eugenekolo 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| WOuldn't proof of that be some grounds for breach of fiduciary duty? |
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| ▲ | tptacek 25 days ago | parent | next [-] | | No. People have weird beliefs about what fiduciary duty means. It does not mean that companies are required at all intervals to maximize revenue or profit. | | |
| ▲ | jasonfarnon 25 days ago | parent [-] | | You must not have spent much time looking at derivative lawsuits if you think this is weird. Anyway if ABC could convincingly classify this as a business decision, e.g., a question of the maintaining goodwill, maybe they're OK. If this came down to some exec feeling personally insulted, like the quote hints, a classic breach of fiduciary duty. |
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| ▲ | jvanderbot 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Dunno - is protecting yourself from high-profile criticism by doing whatever you want with assets you 100% own and are under no contractual obligation to share ... also in fiduciary duty? | |
| ▲ | umanwizard 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Why? Even if the common myth that public company executives must maximize profits at all costs were true, it's easy to construct a plausible explanation for why one might believe in good faith that destroying 538 rather than selling it is the best strategy to maximize profits. For example, because they think the profit they'd lose from 538 competing with their own politics offerings outweighs the amount Silver would pay for it. | | |
| ▲ | opello 25 days ago | parent [-] | | Isn't the checkers level move to make 539 and call it a day? Sure, it's no longer about electors but ... checkers. ... and to think I thought I was being clever. I see this has been suggested already. |
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| ▲ | minimaxir 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It is not illegal to be petty during business negotiations. | |
| ▲ | 8note 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | the easy argument otherwise would be that if they sold the IP, they wouldnt be able to revive it in the future, and also they would have nate silver as a competitor in the space | |
| ▲ | nradov 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Nope. There is really no case law to support such a legal theory. |
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| ▲ | TurdF3rguson 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Just register fivethirtynine.com and don't look back. |
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| ▲ | 25 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| [deleted] |
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| ▲ | donkyrf 25 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| "I won't sell at any price" reads as an invitation to make a much higher bid. It seems silly at best to take that as a literal statement. |