I preffered: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2007/10/26/evidence-based-sch...

20-25 years later, this is still where we are at :)

"Evidence-based" stats tracking is the only somewhat scientific method i know of that can give you a good range of estimates. But it takes effort. Thus why many don't do it.

But accurate estimate ranges are a super-power for businesses if they can trust them. Never understood why that's not demanded more... oh yeah, it's work :p