> So it seems to me that we are likely to have worse software over time.

IMO, it's already happening. I had to change some personal information on a bunch of online services recently, and two out of seven of them were down. One of them is still down, a week later. This is the website of a major utilities company. When I call them, they acknowledge that it's down, but say my timing is just bad. That combined with all the recent outages has left me with the impression that software has been getting (even more) unreliable, recently.