I think it’s entirely possible that AI actually has plateaued, or has reached a point where a jump in intelligence comes at the cost of reliability.

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hugh-avherald 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I suspect it's reached the point where the distinguishing quality of one model over the others is only observable by true experts -- and only in their respective fields. We are exhausting the well of frontier questions that can be programmatically asked and the answers checked.

	▲	hodgehog11 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Absolutely this. Strong disagree that progress is plateauing, merely that gains are harder for the general public to perceive and typically come from more advanced means than simply scaling. Math performance in particular is improving at an uncomfortably rapid pace.

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lukan 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

AI in general? Not at all. LLM's maybe a little bit, when even Sam Altman said, the progress is logarithmic to the investment. Still, there is progress. And the potential of LLM based agents, where many different models and other technics are mixed in together, we just started to explore.