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echelon 5 hours ago

I don't care if this kills Google and OpenAI.

I hope it does, though I'm doubtful because distribution is important. You can't beat "ChatGPT" as a brand in laypeople's minds (unless perhaps you give them a massive "Temu: Shop Like A Billionaire" commercial campaign).

Closed source AI is almost by design morphing into an industrial, infrastructure-heavy rocket science that commoners can't keep up with. The companies pushing it are building an industry we can't participate or share in. They're cordoning off areas of tech and staking ground for themselves. It's placing a steep fence around tech.

I hope every such closed source AI effort is met with equivalent open source and that the investments made into closed AI go to zero.

The most likely outcome is that Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic win and every other "lab"-shaped company dies an expensive death. RunwayML spent hundreds of millions and they're barely noticeable now.

These open source models hasten the deaths of the second tier also-ran companies. As much as I hope for dents in the big three, I'm doubtful.

raw_anon_1111 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I can’t think of a single company I’ve worked with as a consultant that I could convince to use DeepSeek because of its ties with China even if I explained that it was hosted on AWS and none of the information would go to China.

Even when the technical people understood that, it would be too much of a political quagmire within their company when it became known to the higher ups. It just isn’t worth the political capital.

They would feel the same way about using xAI or maybe even Facebook models.

JSR_FDED 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

AirBnB is all in on DeepSeek and Qwen.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-picks-alibabas-qwen...

StealthyStart 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is the real cause. At the enterprise level, trust outweighs cost. My company hires agencies and consultants who provide the same advice as our internal team; this is not to imply that our internal team is incorrect; rather, there is credibility that if something goes wrong, the decision consequences can be shifted, and there is a reason why companies continue to hire the same four consulting firms. It's trust, whether it's real or perceived.

raw_anon_1111 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I have seen it much more nuanced than that.

2020 - I was a mid level (L5) cloud consultant at AWS with only two years of total AWS experience and that was only at a small startup before then. Yet every customer took my (what in hindsight might not have been the best) advice all of the time without questioning it as long as it met their business goals. Just because I had @amazon.com as my email address.

Late 2023 - I was the subject matter expert in a niche of a niche in AWS that the customer focused on and it was still almost impossible to get someone to listen to a consultant from a shitty third rate consulting company.

2025 - I left the shitty consulting company last year after only a year and now work for one with a much better reputation and I have a better title “staff consultant”. I also play the game and be sure to mention that I’m former “AWS ProServe” when I’m doing introductions. Now people listen to me again.

coliveira 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

So much worse for American companies. This only means that they will be uncompetitive with similar companies that use models with realistic costs.

raw_anon_1111 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I can’t think of a single major US company that is big internationally that is competing on price.

ipaddr an hour ago | parent [-]

Any car company. Uber.

All tech companies offering free services.

raw_anon_1111 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Is a “cheaper” service going to come along and upend Google or Facebook?

jamiek88 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

What American car company competes overseas on price?

0xWTF 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Children do the same thing intuitively: parents continually complain that their children don't listen to them. But as soon as someone else tells them to "cover their nose", "chew with their mouth closed", "don't run with scissors", whatever, they listen and integrate that guidance into their behavior. What's harder to observe is all the external guidance they get that they don't integrate until their parents tell them. It's internal vs external validation.

raw_anon_1111 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Or in many cases they go over to their grandparents house and they let them run wild and all of the sudden your parents have “McDonald’s money” for their grandkids when they never had it for you.

tokioyoyo 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If the Chinese model becomes better than competitors, these worries will suddenly disappear. Also, there are plenty startups and enterprises that are running fine-tuned versions of different OS models.

hhh 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

No… Nobody I work for will touch these models. The fear is real that they have been poisoned or have some underlying bomb. Plus y’know, they’re produced by China, so they would never make it past a review board in most mega enterprises IME.

tokioyoyo 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

People say that, but everyone, including enterprises, are constantly buying Chinese tech one way or another because of cost/quality ratio. There’s a tipping point in any excel file where risks don’t make sense, if the cost is 20x for the same quality.

Of course you’ll always have exceptions (government, military and etc.), but for private, winner will take it all.

raw_anon_1111 an hour ago | parent [-]

What Chinese built infrastructure tech where information can be exfiltrated or cause any real damage are American companies buying? Chinese communication tech is for the most part not allowed in any American technology.

cherioo 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That conversation probably gets easier if and when company when $100+M on AI.

Companies just need to get to the “if” part first. That or they wash their hand by using a reseller that can use whatever it wants under the hood.

raw_anon_1111 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yeah that’s not how Big Enterprise works…

And most startups are just doing prompt engineering that will never go anywhere. The big companies will just throw a couple of developers at the feature and add it to their existing business.

tokioyoyo 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Big enterprise with mostly private companies as their clients? Lol, yeah, that’s how they work from my personal experience. The reality is, if it’s not a tech-first enterprise and already outsource part of tech to a shop outside of NA (which is almost majority at this point), they will do absolutely everything to cut the costs.

raw_anon_1111 an hour ago | parent [-]

I spent three years working in consulting mostly in public sector and education and the last two working with startups to mid size commercial interest and a couple of financial institutions.

Before that I spent 6 years working between 3 companies in health care in a tech lead role. I’m 100% sure that any of those companies would I have immediately questioned my judgment for suggesting DeepSeek if had been a thing.

Absolutely none of them would ever have touched DeepSeek.

ipaddr an hour ago | parent [-]

Why would you be presenting what AI tech you are using? You would tell them AI will come from Amazon using a variety of models.

raw_anon_1111 25 minutes ago | parent [-]

You still choose your model. I’m no more going to say “I’m using Bedrock” without being more specific than I would say “I’m using RDS” without specifying the database.

subroutine 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

As a government contractor, using a Chinese model is a non-starter.

siliconc0w 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Even when self-hosting, there is still a real risk of using Chinese models (or any provider you can't trust/sue) because they can embed malicious actions into the model. For example, a small random percentage of the time, it could add a subtle security vulnerability to any code generation.

This is a known-playbook of China and so it's pretty likely that if they aren't already doing this, they will eventually if the models see high adoption.

nagaiaida 4 hours ago | parent [-]

on what hypothetical grounds would you be more meaningfully able to sue the american maker of a self-hosted statistical language model that you select your own runtime sampling parameters for after random subtle security vulnerabilities came out the other side when you asked it for very secure code?

put another way, how do you propose to tell this subtle nefarious chinese sabotage you baselessly imply to be commonplace from the very real limitations of this technology in the first place?

kriops 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

"Baselessly" - I'm sorry but realpolitik is plenty of basis. China is a geopolitical adversary of both the EU and the US. And China will be the first to admit this, btw.

coliveira 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Competitor != adversary. It is US warmongering ideology that tries to equate these concepts.

kriops 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That is just objectively incorrect, and fundamentally misunderstanding the basics of statehood. China, the US, and any other local monopoly on force would absolutely take any chance they could get to extend their influence and diminish the others. That is they are acting rationally to at minimum maximise the probability they are able to maintain their current monopolies on force.

jrflowers 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Isn’t every country by definition a “local monopoly on force”? Sweden and Norway have their own militaries and police forces and neither would take kindly to an invasion from the other. By your definition this makes them adversaries or enemies.

kriops an hour ago | parent [-]

Exactly. I am Norwegian myself, and I don’t even know how many wars we have had with Sweden and Denmark.

If you are getting at the fact that it is sometimes beneficial for adversaries to collaborate (e.g., the prisoner dilemma) then I agree. And indeed, both Norway and Sweden would be completely lost if they declared war on the other tomorrow. But it doesn’t change the fundamental nature of the relationship.

delaminator an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

you clearly haven't been paying attention

remember when the US bugged EU leader's phones, including Merkel from 2002 to 2013?

nagaiaida 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

sorry, is your contention here "spurious accusations don't require evidence when aimed at designated state enemies"? because it feels uncharitably rude to infer that's what you meant to say here, but i struggle to parse this in a different way where you say something more reasonable.

kriops 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I’m sorry you feel that way. It is however entirely reasonable to assume that the comment I replied to was made entirely in bad faith, seeing as it dismisses any rational basis for the behaviour of the entities it is making claims about.

saubeidl an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

The US has also been behaving like an adversary of the EU as of late. So what's the difference?

kriops 17 minutes ago | parent [-]

The EU isn’t a state and has no military or police. As such the EU’s existence is an anecdotal answer to your question in itself: Reliance on (in particular maritime) trade. And yes, China also benefits from trade, but as opposed to democracies (in which the general populace to a greater extent are keys to power) the state does not require trade to sustain itself in the same way.

This makes EU countries more reliable partners for cooperation than China. The same goes for the US from an European perspective, and even with everything going on over there it is still not remotely close.

All states are fundamentally adversaries because they have conflicting interests. To your point however, adversaries do indeed cooperate all the time.

fragmede 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This paper may be of interest to you: https://arxiv.org/html/2504.15867v1

nagaiaida 3 hours ago | parent [-]

the mechanism of action for that attack appears to be reading from poisoned snippets on stackoverflow or a similar site, which to my mind is an excellent example of why it seems like it would be difficult to retroactively pin "insecure code came out of my model" on the evil communist base weights of the model in question

kriops 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For good reason, too. Hostile governments have a much easier time poisoning their "local" LLMs.

tehjoker 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

really a testament to how easily the us govt has spun a china bad narrative even though it is mostly fiction and american exceptionalism

beowulf0x0 39 minutes ago | parent [-]

Spun? You have got to be kidding me. Either you’re delusional or a spy. How many times has China stole information from the US, embedded spy’s into FAANG companies to steal IP, etc.? It’s specifically mentioned in China’s cyber laws to report vulnerabilities to the Chinese government before they are reported to the anyone else - even nationals who work outside of China. They can be prosecuted in China if they fail to disclose. That’s a problem on all levels.

tehjoker 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

This is how crazy and nationalistic people are getting. I'm an American citizen, though I am critical of the US government, and have no allegiances to China. What do you think America is doing to every country, even allies (which has been highly publicized)? Why would a country being constantly attacked by American intelligence and propaganda not want to counter that?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-security-agency-spie...

American intelligence has penetrated most information systems and at least as of 10 years ago, was leading all other nations in the level of sophistication and capability. Read Edward Snowden.

register 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That might be the perspective of a US based company. But there is also Europe and basically it's a choice between Trump and China.

Muromec an hour ago | parent [-]

Europe has Mistral. It feels that governments that can do things without fax take this as a sovereignity thing and roll their own or have their provider in their jurisdiction.

littlestymaar 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> I can’t think of a single company I’ve worked with as a consultant that I could convince to use DeepSeek because of its ties with China even if I explained that it was hosted on AWS and none of the information would go to China.

Well for non-American companies, you have the choice between Chinese models that don't send data home, and American ones that do, with both countries being more or less equally threatening.

I think if Mistral can just stay close enough to the race it will win many customers by not doing anything.

giancarlostoro 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

ChatGPT is like "Photoshop" people will call any AI chatgpt.

banq 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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