| ▲ | munchbunny 15 hours ago | |
The chance of exactly 100 heads from 200 fair coin flips is approximately 5-6%. Qualitatively, that's not particularly strong evidence for an unfair coin if you did only one trial. You could also argue that 100 out of 200 on a fair coin is more likely than any other specific outcome, such as 93/200, so if the argument is that the coin is "too perfect", you then also have to consider the possibility that the coin is somehow biased to produce 93/200 much more often than anything else, vs. 100/200. | ||
| ▲ | nearbuy an hour ago | parent [-] | |
There is also no way to weight a coin that makes it more likely to get 100/200 than a fair coin. | ||