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paxys 4 hours ago

Tesla was dead in the water when it became obvious that they couldn't make a sub-$30K car happen. They will still probably do well as a luxury brand, but China is going to fill in the demand for affordable EVs in the rest of the world outside USA/EU.

noosphr 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think we've seen the end game yet.

I have an electric cargo bike. During a kids party yesterday I ran 5 different errands with it while someone with a car managed to get stuck in traffic, not find a parking spot, and miss the whole thing.

The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.

I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.

EliteGadget 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.

You have seen a motorbikes/mopeds, scooters and micro-cars surely?

An electric bike is essentially a moped which have existed for like 70-80 years now? A small cars have been around since the 1950s.

Cars are the shape they are because normally you want the option of carrying 1-5 people. 5 people is 2 adults and 3 children. BTW cars in the past were much smaller. Compare the size of any car from the 1930-40s in the UK to a modern European car and you will notice it is much smaller they are.

bastawhiz 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I own three electric motorcycles and respectfully disagree. You can't make tube and canvas that let a passenger survive getting t-boned by a Yukon Denali or an F-250. One high-profile accident with a mother and her child getting peeled off the road with a coal shovel are all it'll take to kill such a form factor forever.

The problem isn't the form factor you're describing, it's that you can't put those on the road with 1000+ horsepower machines that are 50 times heavier. And on top of that, a lot of people just don't want to give up their heated massage seats and connected infotainment and removable third row or whatever crap they pack in minivans these days.

mike50 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The Smart for Two existed with an internal combustion engine.

pmg101 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Your first three paragraphs are sound.

But surely the problem with the final paragraph is the transition? Assuming the old style of vehicle remains on the road, then my lightweight one is at risk of being crushed. Only a niche minority would choose that (as a cargo bike owner, I'm also one, but I recognise most are not, with good reason.)

Unless we built a whole separate infrastructure.... We already see a lot of electric scooters using cycle lanes.

slurrpurr 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Of course ICEs can be tiny. Look at motorcycles, rollers and motorbikes. The demand for small cars is just not there anymore

carlosjobim 18 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Episode n# 348 of hackers never having heard about motorcycles. There's almost a billion motorcycles in the world currently.

cindyllm 3 minutes ago | parent [-]

[dead]

sofixa 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.

Nope, the Smart existed for quite a while. Safety standards made cars slightly bigger (e.g. the new Renault Twingo is bigger than the original), but modern American "cars" are massive because that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need. American vehicle manufacturers are pretty terrible at everything, and efficiency standards nudge them that way anyways, so making massive cars with high margins is a good deal for them.

In Europe there are SUVs, but the average car is a VW Golf or a Renault Clio sized. They are pretty decently sized, good visibility, can fit a family of 4, etc. Yeah, you can't haul a 50 ton campervan offroading up to Kilimanjaro, sure, but that's not what 99% of car trips are for.

> I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.

Renault Twizy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Twizy ) exists, but doesn't sell all that well (compared to "normal" cars).

The Citroen Ami ( https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Ami_(2020) ) is pretty popular in certain places (saw a ton of them in Amsterdam and semi-rural areas in France).

rootusrootus 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> that's what marketing has convinced Americans it's what they need

Is there some kind of objective analysis which supports this claim? It seems more likely that people vote with their wallet, and bigger wins out a lot of the time. It's hardly an American manufacturer thing, either, Japanese cars have reliably gotten bigger year after year as well.

sofixa an hour ago | parent [-]

> Is there some kind of objective analysis which supports this claim

It's a bit hard to have objective research on marketing and public perceptions. But how else do you explain all the marketing in that regard, and the fact that Americans, on average, even urbanites, keep buying massive pickup trucks, the majority of which are never used for anything more than a commuter vehicle for 1, maybe 2 occupants? Even in rich countries with very outdoorsy people (Switzerland, Nordics, hell, the Netherlands has camping as a national sport, and during summertime they do mass migrations in towed campers and campervans towards the south of France, Italy, Spain), very few people buy trucks.

Marketing, an arms race, manufacturers not offering much else because their marketing works, Americans being very aspirational about what they'll do with their vehicles, idk.

> It's hardly an American manufacturer thing, either, Japanese cars have reliably gotten bigger year after year as well.

Japanese vehicles in the US or everywhere? Cars in general have been getting bigger because of safety features, but American monstrosities with lower visibility than literal tanks are an almost uniquely American phenomenon (slowly invading the rest of the world too).

jack_tripper 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>but the average car is a VW Golf or a Renault Clio sized

That hasn't been the case here in a long time. SUVs and crossovers are outselling all other categories.

sofixa an hour ago | parent [-]

Where is "here"?

Most cars on this list, and the ones I see while living in one big European city, and regularly visiting lots of others, are not SUVs. There are plenty of them, but even then it's on the smaller side (e.g. a Renault Captur, not a Escalade 8 wheeled 65ton)

https://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2025/11/europe-october-2025-...

kakacik 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This is a bit out of touch with reality, presumably you don't have a car and seemingly are against any normal sized cars or bigger. A very narrow use case should change the world we all live in?

Tiny cars can't do longer distances (aka higher speeds) safely, physics of car collisions won't let you. They have been around for quite some time and popularity is as it is. If you are hit by 50kmh car as a cyclist (seems like frustration/fear of yours thats behind your words), whether car weights 600kg or 1300kg doesn't make much difference to your resulting state. Personal cars have specced brakes according to their weight so breaking distance is cca same regardless of weight.

Where I live (also went through kids birthday party today back & forth few times) - somebody with ebike would freeze their ass in windchill of fast moving bicycle would be below -10C (situation 5 months of a year), slip on partially frozen road could be fatal, moving around on rather narrow roads that have very little room for anybody but cars (Switzerland here but no high altitude) would be literal playing russian roulette with rest of traffic, triple that with wide cargo ebike. Alas, all parents came to the party in forest hut just above our village in their ICE or hybrid cars.

toomuchtodo 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Tesla got far enough for Musk to have the power he wanted and then gave up innovating and expanding. China will win the race, they have a third of global manufacturing capacity and already sell as many NEVs (battery electric and plug in hybrids) domestically as are sold in the US every year, while continuing to scale.

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300...

https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-octob...

https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-...

https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expa...

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-...

1970-01-01 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Assuming they just manufactured vehicles, then this would be the correct take.

nodesocket 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What, has it been a decade of HN’ers calling for imminent demise of Tesla. Meanwhile I’ve been laughing and buying all the way to the bank. Keep on doubting.

jeltz 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Tesla will report a very bad 2025 and my prediction is that the stock will go up anyway. The valuation is totally detached from the fundamentals. Tesla is a company which is falling behind in technology and there is not much indication that they will br able to fix that. But stock will likely stay high for a long time anyway.