| ▲ | joshuaheard 7 hours ago |
| The IPCC rates a collapse before 2100 as “unlikely but not impossible.” |
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| ▲ | 317070 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| The IPCC has historically also underestimated the effect of climate change on the sea. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044... |
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| ▲ | dredmorbius 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | To further clarify, this is the research (from August 2025) which is cited in the CNN story which is the basis of the Dagens AI copypasta. "Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections". | |
| ▲ | anonymousiam 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You could say it that way, or you could say that they're currently overestimating the effects. | | |
| ▲ | int0x29 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | No you can't. That study is comparing past estimates of the past and present to the lived in past and present not past estimates of the future to current estimates of the future. |
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| ▲ | SilverElfin 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Is that true for all the metrics? Didn’t they overestimate sea level rise? I recall reading that actually levels are lower than the forecasts. | | |
| ▲ | 317070 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | The paper I cite is for sea level rise. IPCC models from 1990 and 2011 have made forecasts on sea level rise. When we compare those to what actually happened up to 2025, we see that we are slightly worse right now than their highest sea level prediction that was made. We're worse than their worst case scenario, so their models were significantly too optimistic. In the same paper, they also note that for temperature, the models have been accurate. |
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| ▲ | loeg 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's presumably worth it for Iceland to take seriously even if the probability is low. |
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| ▲ | fulafel 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| When was it updated? The newer research seems up the probability. Eg https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse... |
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| ▲ | Maxion 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| AFAIK the IPCC are generally quite conservative on these matters. Newer research shows possible collapse occurring much sooner (Sometime between 2025-2095). |
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| ▲ | Teever 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I was curious about whether or not the IPCC associates numerical values to words like "unlikely" so I looked it up: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/AR5_Uncertai... They seem to be giving the word unlikely a range from 0-33%. I'm not sure how to reason about that 0% given that they also used the phrase "not impossible." |
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| ▲ | throw74849458 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
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